Four mysterious accounts have reportedly bet $30 million on Trump to win the presidency in November. Bettors on Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, have increased their wagers that the Republican nominee would win the election in recent weeks. While National polling averages by FiveThirtyEight show Harris with a 2.5-point lead over Trump, on Friday, Trump had 60 per cent betting odds on Polymarket compared to Harris’ 39 per cent.
The online market showed odds for the political opponents as neck-and-neck until October 7, when the former president started making significant gains. The flood of support for Trump, the Wall Street Journal first reported, could be attributed to four Polymarket accounts — Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro and Michie. Together, these accounts reportedly bet tens of millions in cryptocy on Trump. “There’s strong reason to believe they are the same entity,” Miguel Morel, who founded Arkham Intelligence, a firm that analyzes blockchain and crypto activity, told the outlet. Arkham found that these four accounts were all funded by deposits from US crypto exchange Kraken.
Each of these accounts operate similarly, like increasing the size of their bets at the same time and betting on Trump winning swing states as well as the general election, according to Arkham. Polymarket is investigating presidential-election market activity, a source familiar with the matter told the Journal. The Independent has reached out to Polymarket for comment. Some online are warning that Trump could point to the Polymarket odds to argue the election was ‘rigged’ if he loses.
Crypto investor Adam Cochran expressed a similar sentiment to the Journal, warning that the uptick in favorable odds for Trump could create a perception of pro-Trump momentum that is inconsistent with the polls. “It is by far the most efficient political advertising one can buy,” Cochran told the outlet.
The betting spree also came one day after Elon Musk, the SpaceX founder and vocal Trump supporter, noted Trump’s slight lead on the Polymarket in a post on X: “Trump now leading Kamala by 3% in betting markets. More accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line.” It’s unclear if Musk’s post, which has been viewed 87 million times, has translated to bets on the prediction market.
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