Ex-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Other Democrats Back Bill to Ban Elected Officials From Political Prediction Market Bets

Thirty Democrats, including former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, are rallying behind legislation that would block elected officials from waging politically related bets on prediction markets, following recent bets tied to the capture of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. The bill, titled the “Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026,” was officially introduced on Friday by Rep. Ritchie Torres, D-N.Y.

It comes amid rising concerns about insider trading after a Polymarket account wagered that Maduro would be “out”  by the end of this month, netting $400,000, sparking concerns of inside information, according to Axios. Maduro was taken by U.S. forces last week. Prosecutors allege he “moved loads of cocaine under the protection of Venezuelan law enforcement,” and worked with others to traffic cocaine, according to a complaint.

Text of the bill, released earlier this week, would bar federal elected officials, political appointees, and executive branch employees from making bets on prediction markets involving “government policy, government action or political outcome” when they have or could get that material information through their roles. On Friday, the proposal was expanded to include congressional staff, prohibiting them from purchasing politically related prediction market contracts as well.

“Imagine, for a moment, a member of the Trump Administration were to place a bet predicting an event like the removal of Nicolás Maduro,” Torres said in a statement on Friday. “As both a government insider and a participant in the prediction markets, that individual would face a perverse incentive to personally push policies that line his pockets.”

“Prediction-market profiteering by government insiders must be prohibited—period,” Torres added. Other notable Democrats cosponsoring the bill include Reps. Sean Casten of Illinois, Brad Sherman of California, and Rashida Tlaib of Michigan. As for whether the bill could get Republican support, communications director for Torres, Benny Stanislawski, said it’s possible. “We encourage any and all members of Congress to join on the bill,” Stanislawski said in a message.

Prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi have surged in popularity over the past year, particularly during the 2024 election cycle, allowing users — often through cryptocy — to wager on political outcomes, including presidential races.