Bitcoin’s grip on the $4 trillion cryptocy market may be loosening, but it’s still too early to tell whether that’ll translate into a sustained period of momentum for altcoins, Adrian Fritz, head of research at Switzerland-based asset manager 21Shares, told Decrypt on Friday. Although the price of many altcoins is surging, “there still needs to be a trend reversal” with Bitcoin’s so-called dominance in order for a so-called altcoin season to begin, he argued. At $2.3 trillion, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at around 61% on Friday, according to CoinGecko. At one point, the asset represented as much as 65.5% of the crypto market’s total value last month, across 17,000 cryptocurrencies tracked by the crypto data provider.
The drop comes as Ethereum and XRP have jumped 20% to $3,600 and 23% to $3.46, respectively, over the past week, with the latter hitting a record high. Meme coins including the Solana-based Bonk and Ethereum-based Floki have meanwhile soared over 45% each. Nearly 60% of Myriad Markets users predict that Ethereum will reach a record high this year. (Myriad Markets is a product of DASTAN, Decrypt‘s parent company.)
In previous market cycles, altcoins have shown strength after Bitcoin’s price peaked. The trend suggests traders rotate toward more volatile assets as the bull market progresses, seeking higher returns. However, the crypto market has changed drastically in recent years. That includes the debut of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the U.S., a product that does not allow investors, whether individual or institutional, to reach for another asset on-chain. “It’s hard to imagine that Bitcoin’s dominance drops to levels that we’ve seen in previous bull markets,” Fritz said. “Over the last year, the spotlight has definitely been on Bitcoin.”
With momentum for crypto legislation on Capitol Hill, some investors are likely racing to price in regulatory tailwinds for the digital assets sector, analysts told Decrypt earlier this week.
Fed futures traders don’t expect the central bank to cut rates until September, per CME FedWatch. Still, there are some signs that altcoin season may be close, such as crypto data provider CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index, which looks at the performance of the top 100 cryptocy by market cap over the past 90 days. On Thursday, the index hit 47 before falling to 43 on Friday. A value of 100 indicates that altcoin season is in full swing.
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