Transform Ventures CEO Michael Terpin Warns Bitcoin Could See One More “Point of Pain” Before Stabilizing

Michael Terpin, founder and CEO of Transform Ventures, says Bitcoin might not be finished with its recent downturn — warning that the leading cryptocy could experience one more significant drawdown before finding a stable bottom.

Terpin shared his outlook in a recent interview, suggesting that despite technical and fundamental improvements, the market may need to digest recent gains and volatility before pushing higher. His comments come after a period of heightened whipping swings in Bitcoin and broader crypto markets, as leveraged positions were cleared out and investor sentiment fluctuated between fear and cautious optimism.

One More Move Before Recovery?

According to Terpin, while many metrics — including on-chain indicators and institutional flows — point toward stabilizing support levels, Bitcoin’s price action has not yet completed a full corrective cycle. He believes that a final downward shakeout — or “last point of pain” — could be necessary to flush out remaining weak hands and set the stage for a more sustainable rally.

“Markets tend to test conviction,” Terpin explained, adding that such corrective moves can be healthy and even constructive in the long run, provided they aren’t triggered by structural liquidity shocks or macro contagion outside the crypto ecosystem.

What Traders Should Watch

Terpin highlighted several key areas that market participants should monitor as conditions evolve:

• Support & resistance levels on major charts, especially near psychological price points.

• Derivatives and open interest dynamics, which can indicate lingering leverage stress.

• Macro indicators — including risk asset correlation with equities and sentiment signals — that may play a role in whether the “last pain point” materializes.

He also reiterated that current fundamentals remain strong, with factors such as ETF inflows, institutional adoption ramping up, and network activity remaining robust even through periods of volatility.

Broader Market Context

Bitcoin and broader crypto markets have experienced choppy trading in recent weeks, oscillating between renewed upside attempts and sharp corrections that have wiped billions off total market caps. Analysts and traders alike have noted that these swings often coincide with broader risk asset behavior and macro news — including shifts in liquidity expectations and regulatory headlines.

Terpin’s view — that a corrective phase could still play out — aligns with a common technical pattern known as a “retest of lows after a relief bounce,” in which assets revisit earlier support zones before trend continuation. Whether Bitcoin ultimately holds long-term uptrend support near its current levels will likely depend on the depth of sell-side pressure and fresh capital entering the market