“I think that if they work extremely hard it can be done within a couple weeks but there are plenty of examples of this process taking 3+ months historically,” added Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart.
Prior to this week, it had seemed like the SEC was not going to approve the Ethereum ETFs. This was based on the lack of engagement between the SEC and issuers. However, that changed earlier this week when the SEC suddenly started talking to issuers, asking for 19b-4 forms to be turned around and sent back in. When this happened, parts of the SEC seemed to be taken by surprise at the 180 degree turn.
This led to speculation over what caused the apparent sudden change of heart. “It is a completely unprecedented situation, which means it’s entirely political,” one source told The Block.
Ahead of the approvals, a group of bipartisan House lawmakers had urged the SEC to approve the ETFs. “With the Commission’s actions earlier this year, it seems a natural progression that would not only demonstrate consistency in the Commission’s application of its standards but would also affirm the legal reasoning that facilitated the spot Bitcoin ETPs decision,” the lawmakers said.
As the chances of the approvals grew higher during the week, the Grayscale Ethereum Trust discount shrunk from -24% to -6%. As the trust converts into an ETF, this will enable holders to be able to exchange their shares for the cash value of the underlying ether.
Since the Bitcoin ETFs were approved, they have amassed an additional 207,000 bitcoin ($14 billion) on top of the 621,000 ($42 billion) bitcoin held in the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust when it converted into an ETF.
However, Ethereum ETFs may struggle to get the same level of traction. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas estimated that the Ethereum ETFs may get 10 to 15% of the assets that their Bitcoin counterparts received. “That would put them at like $5 to $8 billion, which, again, for any normal launch in the first couple of years. That’s pretty good.”
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