Bitcoin Bounces to $106K After Iran-Israel Jitters, but Analysts Warn of Deeper Pullback

Meanwhile, the CoinDesk 20 — an index of the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, excluding memecoins, stablecoins and exchange coins — has lost 4.4% in the same period of time. Tokens such as ether ETH, Avalanche AVAX, and TonCoin TON were the hardest hit, slumping between 6% and 8%. Crypto stocks, however, aren’t doing too hot. Most equities are in the red, especially bitcoin miners MARA Holdings (MARA) and Riot Platforms (RIOT), down 5% and 4% respectively.

A notable exception is stablecoin issuer Circle (CIRCL), which is still benefiting from the windfall of its recent IPO; the stock is up 13% today, with news of retail giants Amazon and Walmart reportedly exploring stablecoins adding to the momentum. Traditional markets don’t seem overwhelmingly concerned by the war. While gold is up 1.3%, potentially gearing up for new all-time highs, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are only down 0.4% each. “Nice bounce thus far and lack of follow-through lower,” well-followed crypto trader Skew said in a Friday X post.

Market participants will likely remain cautious through the weekend with BTC tightly correlated with traditional markets amid heightened geopolitical risks, Skew added. On the longer timeframe, some analysts see risks of a deeper pullback. 10x Research founder Markus Thielen noted that BTC’s drop below $106,000 translates to a failed breakout, and traders should wait for more favorable setups before rushing to buy the dip.

He highlighted the $100,000-$101,000 zone as key support, warning that a break below could mark a return to the broader consolidation phase similar to last summer. John Glover, chief investment officer at bitcoin lender Ledn, argued that bitcoin entered a corrective phase from its record highs that could see the largest digital asset drop to $88,000-$93,000.