Analysts Speculate on LIT Token Valuation Ahead of Lighter Airdrop

The cryptocy community is currently buzzing with anticipation around the Lighter airdrop. The decentralized perpetuals exchange (DEX), built on Ethereum Layer 2 with zero-knowledge (ZK) rollup technology, is poised for its token generation event (TGE) by December end with a major community airdrop.

As the TGE is just around the corner, analysts are speculating on the potential price and market valuation for Lighter. A recent X post by user, Vikingo.hl, noted that the LIT token was trading with $4.3 billion in valuation at ~$4.3 in pre-market price.

Other users also echoed similar sentiment around LIT token’s potential launch price and valuation. Most of the posts around this on X have also noted that the potential date for the airdrop is December 29. Just a few days prior, the Lighter team transferred 250 million tokens from the team wallet to a different address, fueling the airdrop speculation. According to the project’s tokenomics, the total supply for LIT token is 1 billion and the allocation for airdrop is 250 million tokens, representing 25% of the total supply.

Vikingo’s post highlights that a total of 12.5 million points were rewarded to users, giving each point 20 tokens in equivalent, or $85 per point. However, the token’s pre-market price has declined to $3.9 at the time of publishing, as per market data from Hyperliquid. Launched publicly in October 2025 after a private beta, Lighter has rapidly emerged as a fierce competitor to established players like Hyperliquid. With trading volumes surging, often reaching billions daily, and features like verifiable on-chain matching, the platform has attracted significant attention.

Lighter’s growth has been propelled by its points program, a key mechanism for rewarding user participation and farming potential airdrop eligibility. The program spanned across two seasons. The first one covered the private beta from January to September 2025, onboarding around 100,000–110,000 users and second ran from October 1 to December 31, 2025, coinciding with the public mainnet launch. The next season added hundreds of thousands more users and focused on anti-Sybil measures to prevent wash trading.

Points were awarded on a weekly basis for trading activity, liquidity provision, competitions, and referrals, totaling roughly 12.5 million across both seasons. A recent dashboard update allows users to allocate their airdrop across up to four wallets, with a deadline of December 26, 2025, further signaling imminent distribution.

As per DeFillama data, Lighter currently has a total value locked (TVL) of $1.4 billion. The past 30 days trading volume for the platform sits at $2.94 billion with its open interest (OI) sitting at $1.60 billion. Amid Lighter being the hot topic among crypto traders, prediction platform Polymarket has also become a hotspot for betting on Lighter’s timeline and valuation. Market data currently show over 86% odds for the airdrop and TGE before December 31, 2025. The trading volume for this bet has exceeded above $9 million.

A separate market speculation on post-launch fully diluted valuation (FDV) also gained significant attention. The probabilities for >$1 billion stand high at 87%, while >$3 billion and >$4 billion have seen sharp increases following recent developments. This prediction has brought over $35.5 million in trading volume. In a notable move, Hyperliquid listed LIT-USDC perpetuals for pre-market trading on December 22, 2025.

The listing announcement was quite unexpected as Lighter is considered a direct rival to Hyperliquid. Within hours of listing, LIT token quickly climbed above $4 with its fully diluted valuation (FDV) reaching a new high of $4.3 billion. Conversely, its open interest and trading volume also reached millions, with leverage up to 3x enabling longs and shorts positions on token’s pre-market price.

Terron Gold