Bitcoin extended its decline on Wednesday, falling to roughly $88,600, its lowest level since April and more than 5% below where it opened 2025. The move coincided with the release of the Federal Reserve’s October meeting minutes, which emphasized “two-sided risks” facing the economy and showed officials deeply divided over how quickly to ease policy.
Several policymakers pointed to slower job gains, a rising unemployment rate, and fading labor demand as signs the economy is becoming more vulnerable to a sharper downturn. At the same time, many said inflation has shown little sign of returning sustainably to its 2% target, with tariff-driven goods inflation and sticky service sector prices keeping them cautious about further easing.
Against that backdrop, officials stressed that policy is not on a preset course, and December’s decision still remains wide open. Some participants said another rate cut could be warranted as the Fed inches toward a more neutral stance. Many others argued rates should remain unchanged for the rest of the year, given persistent inflation. One participant favored a larger 50-basis-point reduction, while another preferred no cut at all.
Prediction markets quickly repriced. On Polymarket, the odds of a quarter-point cut at the December meeting fell from about 52% to 30% after the minutes were released, while the probability of no change climbed from 46% to nearly 70%. CME FedWatch, a tool that tracks futures-implied rate expectations, showed virtually the same split.
On Wednesday, K33 Research’s Vetle Lunde warned that bitcoin’s derivatives market is entering a “dangerous” setup as traders pile on aggressive leverage into a deepening correction. Perpetual futures open interest has surged by more than 36,000 BTC, the largest weekly increase since April 2023, while funding rates have flipped positive on expectations of a rebound that has yet to materialize.
Lunde described the behavior as “knife-catching” and said the current structure mirrors past periods that typically saw further declines. He estimated a potential bottom forming in the $84,000–$86,000 zone, with risk of a deeper move toward April’s $74,500 low if selling accelerates. Other top cryptocurrencies aren’t faring much better. Ethereum dropped to about $2,870 — its first break below $3,000 since July — while XRP has slumped toward the $2 mark, a level it hasn’t traded near in roughly five months.
